International tariffs on footwear will not stop globalisation, but they will redirect its course. Global production chains are structured in such a way that around two-thirds of the footwear consumed is produced in countries other than those where it is purchased. The idea of deglobalisation is, therefore, a misleading narrative. Rather, we are witnessing a reconfiguration of global trade towards a form of regional globalisation. In this shift, logistics and geopolitics are becoming increasingly important, overtaking the traditional competitive advantages based solely on cost.
The debate on the impact of tariffs in the footwear industry is more relevant than ever. To fully understand the dynamics at play, it is essential to consider the global context of production and consumption. According to the Expo Riva Schuh & Gardabags Research Centre, Enrico Cietta, economist and Chairmain of the exhibition’s Scientific Committee, points out that globalisation is evolving but remains an unstoppable process.
The resilience of globalisation and the impact of crises
Contrary to what some may believe, the introduction of new tariffs will not trigger an “avalanche that overwhelms globalisation. Our globalised footwear production system cannot simply be switched off,” says Cietta. Globalisation is changing shape, but it will not revert to a model in which each country independently manufactures its own shoes.
Recent data reveals a clear disconnect between declining consumption and production and the comparatively stronger resilience of exports.
In 2023, there was a significant drop in consumption – around one billion fewer pairs sold compared to 2017, and 1.3 billion fewer than in 2022.
Production saw a similarly steep decline, with 1.1 billion fewer pairs than in 2017 and 1.4 billion fewer than in 2022.
However, the fall in exports was far more modest: just 0.3 billion fewer pairs than in 2017 and 1.1 billion fewer than in 2022.
This is a crucial point: crises tend to impact consumption and production more than they do exports. The reason is structural: “Two out of every three pairs of shoes we consume are produced outside the country where they are ultimately purchased.” Exports demonstrate significantly greater resilience to economic crises, highlighting the difficulty in halting the globalisation of footwear production.
Tariffs and the reconfiguration of global trade
Tariffs will have an impact, but “more than reducing the volume of trade flows, they will redirect the routes those flows take.” At this point in time, it would therefore be inaccurate to speak of “deglobalisation”. Instead, what we are experiencing is a form of “globalisation that is evolving and taking on different characteristics different from the past.” We are witnessing a reconfiguration of global footwear trade that is moving towards a “regionalisation of globalisation.” This term refers not only to geographical proximity, but also to variables linked to logistics and geopolitics. Compared to the past, when globalisation was driven primarily by cost-based competitive advantages, new variables are now at play.
Reshoring: an unrealistic ambition?
The idea of bringing footwear production back to importing countries – so-called “reshoring” – is described as “unthinkable”. Footwear manufacturing is highly concentrated: exporting countries account for 67.8% of global production and 79.8% of global exports, acting as “world factories” that produce “not for their own domestic markets, but for global consumption.” Consumer countries, which account for roughly 16% of global demand, are unlikely to be able to relocate such a well-established and efficiently structured production system within their own borders. As a result, the reshoring effect “will be seen in only a very small share of production, and will likely concern specific niche segments.”
Geopolitical spheres of influence and the future of the industry
Cietta identified five spheres of influence:
- US and Western sphere of influence: This bloc dominates consumption and imports (United States, Canada, Mexico, the European Union, the UK, Japan, South Korea and Australia).
- Chinese sphere of influence: This bloc controls production and exports (China, Hong Kong, much of Asia and certain African nations dependent on Chinese investment).
- Emerging, non-aligned countries: These are producers that consume much of their own output and act as a balancing force between the two major blocs mentioned above (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil and South Africa – the BRICS area).
- Russia and Iran: Countries particularly penalised by international trade restrictions.
- Neutral countries: Small trade hubs that maintain open relations with all (Singapore, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates).
The 2 main blocs – producers and importers – will continue relations
This is nothing new, but it’s worth repeating to those forecasting the sudden collapse of supply chains: The US and Western bloc accounts for 75.1% of global imports, while the Chinese sphere represents 75.9% of exports and 66.5% of global production.
These figures, along with insights into the evolving nature of globalisation, underline a key point: the two worlds – the Western consumer markets and the Asian production/export hubs – will inevitably need to continue engaging and trading. New opportunities may arise in other countries, but the global scenario remains “clearly divided”. The mutual dependence between these two blocs will likely shift gradually, but it is highly unlikely to disappear any time soon.
A transitional landscape
We are, without doubt, operating in a transitional landscape. We have come from two decades in which “prices remained relatively stable,” whereas today we are navigating a world marked in some cases by deflation (driven by massive overproduction), and in others, significant price increases (also due to restrictions and tariffs). It is plausible to expect a shift from a scenario dominated by a “highly concentrated production hub centred on China” to a “more fragmented” landscape. However, “production will remain largely based in Asia.”
What emerges is a future defined by slow but inevitable transitions. “Globalisation is changing shape, but it’s not reversing,” says Cietta. Changes in tariffs and trade policies will therefore affect geographical trade routes and production structures, leading to fragmentation and new regional balances – but without undermining the core foundations of globalisation itself.
The summary offered by Enrico Cietta highlights that the footwear industry is heading towards a process of continuous transformation, driven more by strategic realignments than sudden changes.
International trade fairs
It is precisely in this kind of environment – where market complexity and ongoing evolution exist alongside certain well-established pillars – that distinctly international trade fairs, such as Expo Riva Schuh and Gardabags, play a crucial role. These are must-attend events for anyone seeking to understand how sourcing routes are shifting and to identify partners who best align with their business needs.
